OHSAA Bracketology: A final forecast of the 2026 boys’ basketball pairings
By: Andrew Woods
Posted on:
Although the girls’ seeding was revealed this week, boys’ basketball teams across Southeast Ohio still have one more week before their paths to Dayton are revealed. This article will show what the paths look like now and look at the important matchups that could shake up the brackets late.
All RPIs and seeds are correct as of February 9.
Division III
Two districts, both shared with East
Bracket 1
1 Miami Trace vs. 8 Athens
4 Marietta vs. 5 Sheridan
Bracket 2
2 Chillicothe vs. 7 Hillsboro
3 Jackson vs. 6 Warren
Athens’ struggles last week likely mean the Bulldogs will be stuck at the bottom of Division III and will have to play Miami Trace, who sits at the top of the FAC with a 13-2 record. However, the Bulldogs’ chances of a better seed are not completely dead, as Athens has a trio of games this week that could provide a last-minute boost. First, Athens plays Logan, a Division II school that could be a major boost to Athens’ RPI winning percentage. The Bulldogs also play River Valley and Alexander this week, both of which the Bulldogs have defeated this season. Although escaping the bottom seed will be a tough task for Athens, as they are more than five percentage points behind 7 seed Hillsboro, it could happen if Hillsboro slips up and Athens cleans up.
Division IV
Two districts
Bracket 1
1 Circleville-bye
8 Logan Elm vs. 9 Vinton County
4 Fairfield Union vs. 13 Westfall
5 Waverly vs. 12 New Lexington
Bracket 2
2 Unioto-bye
7 Gallia Academy vs. vs. 10 McClain
3 Washington Court House-bye
6 Meigs vs. 11 River Valley
Meigs’ upset loss to Vinton County last week hurt the Marauders in the RPI rankings. Meigs dropped from the fourth seed last week to the fifth seed this week. In addition, the gap between Meigs and the teams ahead of them widened, as the gap between the Marauders and Waverly, who sat just a percentage point ahead of the Marauders last week, has widened to more than two percentage points this week. However, the Marauders still have some hope of improving their seed. This week, Meigs visits 14-3 Jackson, and if Meigs can pull off the upset, the win could give the Marauders the boost they need to improve their seed.
Meanwhile, despite pulling off the upset and knocking off Meigs, Vinton County remains nearly six percentage points behind Logan Elm, who holds the 8 seed and the last home playoff game. Although the chances of claiming a home game are slim, the Vikings could claim one if they clean up this week. Vinton County has games against Washington Court House, the 3 seed in Division IV, as well as TVC-Ohio co-leader Wellston. If the Vikings can pull off those upsets, they could put themselves into a position to steal a home game at the last minute.
Division V
Two districts
1 Chesapeake vs. 16 Oak Hill/17 West Union
8 Wellston vs. 9 Northwest
4 Winchester Eastern vs. 13 Lynchburg-Clay
5 Zane Trace vs. 12 Nelsonville-York
Bracket 2
2 Ironton vs. 15 Minford/18 Alexander
7 Fairland vs. 10 South Point
3 Wheelersburg vs. 14 Coal Grove
6 Portsmouth vs. 11 Piketon
Nelsonville-York made the most of their games last week, sweeping Athens and Vinton County. That strong week led to the Buckeyes climbing from the 15 seed all the way to the 12 seed. However, the Buckeyes’ seed is not secure just yet, as Lynchburg-Clay is less than a percentage point behind while 15 seed Minford is less than two percentage points behind Nelsonville-York. That means the Buckeyes’ game against Waterford could be crucial in the fight to avoid a first-round game.
Division VI
Two districts
Bracket 1
1 Peebles-bye
8 Waterford vs. 9 Symmes Valley
4 Huntington vs. 13 Eastern
5 Adena vs. 12 Southeastern
Bracket 2
2 Valley vs. 15 Ripley
7 Beaver Eastern vs. 10 Belpre
3 Portsmouth West vs. 14 Paint Valley
6 North Adams vs. 11 Rock Hill
The Waterford boys’ basketball team has heated up at the right time. Since starting the season 2-8, the Wildcats have been on a tear, winning eight of their last nine games. That strong stretch includes three crucial home wins last week. That week, Waterford cleaned up, knocking off rival Fort Frye, TVC-Hocking opponent Eastern and Division III Athens. Those wins propelled Waterford’s rise in the Division VI standings. This week, Waterford rose three spots, going from the 11 seed to the 8 seed. In addition to the seed boost, Waterford’s rise puts the Wildcats in position to host their first tournament game. If Waterford can take care of business this week against Nelsonville-York and Belpre, they can lock up a first-round home game.
Division VII
Two districts
Bracket 1
1 Southern vs. 16 Sciotoville East
8 St. Joseph Central vs. 9 Western
4 Notre Dame vs. 13 Federal Hocking
5 Green vs. 12 Glenwood
Bracket 2
2 Fairfield vs. 15 Miller
7 Whiteoak vs. 10 South Gallia
3 South Webster vs. 14 Trimble
6 Manchester vs. 11 Clay
Southern had an incredible week last week. The Tornadoes did not only clinch the TVC-Hocking title outright and have two players reach the 1,000-point milestone, but their wins that week helped them snag the 1 seed in Division VII. However, if things go wrong this week, the Fairfield Lions could take the top seed back. Southern leads Fairfield by over three percentage points, but the Lions could get the RPI points they need with an upset of the 14-2 Unioto Shermans. If Fairfield defeats Unioto and takes care of their other opponents, they have a solid shot at claiming the 1 seed.
Meanwhile, Trimble and Federal Hocking’s fight to improve their seed continues this week. The Lancers and Tomcats will square off against each other on February 13. That game could determine those two teams’ first round opponents because Trimble sits just a percentage point behind Fed Hock.