Sports
Ohio Men’s Basketball November Update: Rough start leaves more questions than answers
By: Grant Kiefer
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ATHENS, Ohio (WOUB) – Well, anything that could’ve gone wrong, went wrong.
It was made clear coming into this season that Ohio (1-6) wanted to toughen up and play elite competition. Its schedule reflects that, as KenPom has the Bobcats with the 51st toughest schedule in the entire nation. However, the results haven’t been there. The only way it could’ve possibly gone worse for Ohio is if the team were 0-7.
There are some caveats, though. Opening night against Arkansas State in the MAC-SBC Challenge was a game Ohio absolutely could’ve won. The Bobcats lost by just four points in a game they missed seven free throws and shot 30% from three. Ohio led by seven at halftime and squandered that lead quickly by coming out flat in the second half. Senior guard and the team’s leading scorer, Jackson Paveletzke, missed a shot that would’ve cut Arkansas State’s lead to just one with a minute to go.
Illinois State was a very, very strong rebound game for the Bobcats. We saw a tough defensive performance from the team and saw signs of what this team can be.
Whatever lessons were learned from those games have just not been applied since. Ohio fell to Bethune-Cookman on Nov. 19 at home by just three points, and that was the game where urgency seemingly felt like it was settling in for this group.
“We’re not a very good team right now. We’re going to be a good team, it’s just a matter of winning,” head coach Jeff Boals said following the Bethune-Cookman loss.
Boals took lots of accountability following the loss to Bethune-Cookman, even beyond his opening statement. It felt like it was time for a switch to flip. That this group had realized they aren’t what they could be.
The response? Falling behind against George Mason by as many as 41 points in the second half. That game is up there for the worst loss in the Boals era. Ohio looked truly outmatched against a team thought to be another good team at the mid-major level. But it looked like Ohio took a buy game against Purdue or Houston.
Ohio fought back to lose 92-69 and only ended up being outscored by four points in the second half altogether, but the damage had been done. There’s no shying away from being down 40 points in a game to any opponent. George Mason lit up Ohio from three, shooting 8-15 in the first half alone. That would be a good split for an entire game. The poor defensive performance aside, Ohio looked lost on offense. Paveletzke scored a season-low seven points. Ill-advised threes left and right, just trying to catch up with George Mason. Both Paveletzke and Boals received technical fouls. It was a true disaster game.
Even with a disaster like that, the Bobcats had 24 hours to turn it around. Beating Loyola Marymount could’ve proved that this trip wasn’t meaningless and provided an opportunity to build off a third-place finish at a respected mid-major MTE. While Ohio hung in strong in the first half with a one-point lead at the break, it wouldn’t be enough. The Bobcats held Loyola Marymount to an abysmal 1-16 shooting from beyond the arc, but a team that shoots at a 41% clip wouldn’t stay at 6% for an entire game. That came back to bite Ohio quickly, as a one-point lead turned into a 15-point deficit before the under-12 media timeout, and the Bobcats wound up losing 70-58.
Despite the tough schedule, 1-6 is tough to look at on paper. The argument is often made that the non-conference portion of the schedule “doesn’t matter” for mid-major teams in traditional one-bid leagues, like the Mid-American Conference. This is true; however, there’s not much to be excited about with this team currently. This was much easier to say after the 1-4 start, as the two losses to non-power teams were by a combined seven points. Now? It’s tough to come away with anything to be truly excited about after the showing in Daytona Beach.
The schedule is still intense for Ohio, but it slows down a bit. The Bobcats have a week off before hosting Maine on Dec. 3. Then, Boals has a chance to exercise demons against a Marshall team that he’s beaten one time ever, back in 2021. St. Bonaventure will prove to be a challenge in Cleveland on Dec. 13, but that’s another tournament-level team that Ohio just needs to use as a measuring stick. After that, it’s a couple of games against non-DI opponents and MAC play.
Again, these games don’t mean a ton when it comes to the overall goal for this team–winning the MAC and clinching an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament–but they mean a lot right now. Potentially staring at just 2 or 3 wins on the season heading into MAC play on Dec. 20 will do nothing but diminish the team’s confidence. Have these games given Ohio insight into what it’s like to play good basketball teams? Absolutely. Have these games made Ohio a better basketball team? That’s to be determined. It’s pretty apparent right now that this stretch hasn’t given Ohio any sort of confidence, though. At least for future groups that come and play for Boals, he’s said in a couple of past media availabilities that he will rethink the way he structures the non-conference portion of the schedule.
From a numbers standpoint, there’s not a ton Ohio is doing well right now. The Bobcats play with one of the fastest paces in the country, which is something most Boals-coached teams have done in the past. They’re middle of the road in turnover percentage in the country, ranking 150th out of 365 teams. They’re not allowing a ton of free throw attempts in comparison to how many field goal attempts they’re allowing. That’s about it for positives. The Bobcats ranked in the bottom half of the country in offensive and defensive efficiency. They don’t rebound well on either end of the floor. They shoot 66% from the free-throw line as a team. They rank low in effective field goal percentage, meaning they don’t take smart shots, while also allowing teams to shoot 55% eFG%.
The stat that needs to change the most on both ends? Three-point percentage. Coming into their game against Loyola Marymount, Ohio ranked the fourth-worst of any team in the entire country in opponent three-point percentage. It may as well have been open gym. That number went up slightly after LMU’s 1-16 shooting clip in the first half, but it’s still among the bottom 20 teams in the country. Ohio takes a ton of three pointers, but is shooting at a 27% clip, ranking 327th in the country. In a time where the sport is living and dying by the long ball, the Bobcats are struggling on both ends, and that’s alarming.
Ohio didn’t shoot amazingly from beyond the arc last year either, but it’s not like the coaching staff ignored the need in the offseason. Ajay Sheldon and Paveletzke both worked hard to improve from long range during the summer, according to Boals, after the team’s exhibition against Ohio State. They signed Dior Conners from Appalachian State, who shot at a staggering 40% clip from three last season. This year? That’s down at 25%, and Conners didn’t start until George Mason. Paveletzke is the only player shooting higher than 35% on the team from deep (with at least five attempts). Sheldon is the only other player shooting higher than 30%. Aidan Hadaway went 2-4 from three against Loyola Marymount, but before that game was 4-25. Not great.
Right now, the solution to these problems seems to be whatever soul-searching this group does over the week-long break. Some time to boost some confidence. Some time to go visit family over Thanksgiving. Maine will be a formidable opponent to ease back into things, as the Black Bears are one of the worst teams in the country according to KenPom. If the Bobcats drop that one? Major, major panic time. Not only would it be a bad loss to send Ohio to 1-7, but the university’s athletic department paid Maine nearly $80,000 to play the game, according to documents obtained via public records.
The good news? It’s a talented team. Paveletzke is making a case for conference player of the year with his numbers. Javan Simmons is All-MAC caliber. Hadaway is a four-year senior who’s improved every year and shown he can catch fire in the paint. Conners and Jalen Breath are talented transfers who’ve had success outside of Ohio, both team and personally. JJ Kelly has proven to be the standout true freshman of the group, already ranking sixth on the team in minutes played, and has debatably been the team’s best individual defender. Elijah Elliott showed signs of what he can be last year and can bounce back from his sophomore slump at any point.
If you want a reason to believe, it’s the talent this group has. Ohio just has to figure out what this group’s identity is going to be.