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A new study suggests eliminating Ohio’s Medicaid expansion would have costs beyond the state’s projections

By: Karen Kasler | Statehouse News Bureau
Posted on: Wednesday, July 30, 2025

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COLUMBUS, Ohio (Statehouse News Bureau) — The new two-year state budget includes language that would end Medicaid expansion for around 757,000 Ohioans if the federal match drops below 90%. The state says that’s because the cost to make up that drop would be huge. But a group that studies the issue says ending Medicaid expansion could have costs even beyond that.

Ohio Medicaid Director Maureen Corcoran has said if the rate drops to 85%, the state would have to pay $380 million to cover that cost. “And if they went all the way down to 65%—our regular amount—then they’d be dropping it by five times that,” Corcoran added. “So we’re up near $2 billion.”

A study commissioned by the Health Policy Institute of Ohio says if Medicaid expansion ends, the state would see a $220.6 million drop in money going to the general revenue fund.

HPIO’s Amy Rohling McGee said without Medicaid expansion, the state would lose the federal dollars that fund it.

“When they come into the state, they generate additional economic activity. So there’s sales tax that is generated from those dollars coming to the state. There’s personal income taxes that are paid as a result of those dollars coming to the state,” Rohling McGee said in an interview for “The State of Ohio”. “If we no longer have those federal dollars, then we will experience a reduction in those revenues.”

The study also predicts there would be 53,181 fewer jobs in Ohio over five years.

“Without Medicaid expansion, those federal dollars would no longer be coming to our state, and that would impact health care providers, which in turn would mean job loss not only in health care, but also in fields that feed into health care,” Rohling McGee said. “For example, if there’s a deli right around the hospital system and they rely on the employees of the system to purchase food there, they could be impacted as well, and that could result in more job loss.”

The study also says a slower growing economy related to the end of Medicaid expansion would mean a drop in personal income growth of $4.7 billion a year, or about $900 per household.

The study was conducted by Regional Economic Models, Inc., which analyzes policies in several states.