OHSAA Bracketology: An updated forecast of the 2026 boys basketball tournament pairings
By: Andrew Woods
Posted on:
Although many teams were stuck at home last week due to snow, that did not prevent a flurry of changes in the RPI standings. This article will break down the changes and discuss what to look out for as the tournament draw comes closer.
Key: Teams within Hardwood Heroes’ coverage area are in bold, while TVC members that are not part of Hardwood Heroes’ coverage area are in italics.
All brackets and RPI totals are correct as of February 1, 2026.
Division III
Two districts, both shared with East
Bracket 1
1 Miami Trace vs. 8 Athens
4 Marietta vs. 5 Sheridan
Bracket 2
2 Chillicothe vs. 7 Hillsboro
3 Jackson vs. 6 Warren
Athens remains at the bottom of Division III, but the Bulldogs’ odds of escaping the bottom seed may go up with some wins this week. The Bulldogs play Warren, who sits at the #6 seed in Division 3 as of press time, Nelsonville York, whom Athens only lost two by seven on the road earlier this season, and Waterford, who sits at 7-9 despite winning five of their last six games. If Athens can win their games this week, they could close the gap between themselves and #7 seed Hillsboro and avoid the bottom seed.
Division IV
Two districts
Bracket 1
1 Circleville-bye
8 Gallia Academy vs. 9 Vinton County
4 Waverly vs. 13 New Lexington
5 Meigs vs. 12 Westfall
Bracket 2
2 Unioto-bye
7 Logan Elm vs. 10 McClain
3 Fairfield Union-bye
6 Washington Court House vs. 11 River Valley
The Meigs Marauders made the most of last week, rising two spots and claiming the #5 seed. Even better, Meigs could increase their seed even more with wins down the stretch. The Marauders are less than a percentage point behind #4 seed Waverly. Even a first-round bye is not out of the question for Meigs, as they sit just over three percentage points behind Fairfield Union, who has the last bye.
Meanwhile, Vinton County’s chances of hosting a playoff game continue to narrow, as the Vikings remain six percentage points out of the #8 seed and the final home game. An upset over Meigs this week would go a long way toward claiming a home game, but the Marauders have heated up since the teams last met. Meigs has won four of their last five games, and their only loss of the stretch was a one-point heartbreaker against #3 Fairfield Union. Although it will be tough, Vinton County has a shot, as the Vikings took down Meigs on the road and could take the sweep at home this week.
Division V
1 Chesapeake vs. 16 Oak Hill/17 West Union
8 Wellston vs. 9 Northwest
4 Winchester Eastern vs. 13 Minford
5 Zane Trace vs. 12 Lynchburg-Clay
Bracket 2
2 Ironton vs. 15 Nelsonville-York/18 Alexander
7 Fairland vs. 10 South Point
3 Wheelersburg vs. 14 Coal Grove
6 Portsmouth vs. 11 Piketon
Nelsonville-York’s bad schedule continues to hurt the Buckeyes, as they remain the #15 seed and if the tournament draw happened today, they would have to play a first-round game. The Buckeyes will likely have to get some wins down the stretch. Nelsonville-York will have three more chances to get a win before tournament time. The Buckeyes will face Athens February 5, Vinton County February 7, and Waterford February 10. Wins in those games will be important as the Buckeyes try to make the main bracket.
Division VI
1 Peebles-bye
8 Symmes Valley vs. 9 Belpre
4 Huntington vs. 13 Eastern
5 North Adams vs. 12 Southeastern
Bracket 2
2 Valley vs. 15 Ripley
7 Adena vs. 10 Rock Hill
3 Portsmouth West vs. 14 Paint Valley
6 Beaver Eastern vs. 11 Waterford
Although Belpre and Waterford fell further behind #8 Symmes Valley last week, a home playoff game is still possible for both teams. Both Waterford and Belpre are less than three percentage points behind the Vikings, so if things go well for either team down the stretch or if Symmes Valley slips up, the door to a home game could open for either team.
Division VII
Two districts
Bracket 1
1 Fairfield vs. 16 Sciotoville East
8 Western vs. 9 St. Joseph Central
4 Notre Dame vs. 13 Federal Hocking
5 Green vs. 12 Glenwood
Bracket 2
2 Southern vs. 15 Miller
7 Whiteoak vs. 10 South Gallia
3 South Webster vs. 14 Trimble
6 Manchester vs. 11 Clay
There were very few changes in the Division VII bracket, which means Southern is still in the hunt for the top seed. The Tornadoes remain less than a percentage point behind Fairfield, and with tough games against North Adams and Unioto remaining for Fairfield, Southern could snag the top seed if Fairfield struggles against their remaining schedule.
Meanwhile, Federal Hocking and Trimble swapped seeds last week. Fed Hock rose to the 13 seed while Trimble dropped to the 14 seed. However, the battle for seeding is not nearly over, as both teams’ RPIs remain incredibly close. Fed Hock sits at an RPI of .3817, while Trimble sits less than a tenth of a percentage point behind at .3810. This battle for seeding could come down to a battle between Fed Hock and Trimble the day before the tournament draw deadline