Week 8 Playoff Scenarios: How every Gridiron Glory team can reach the postseason

By: Dylan Theisen
Posted on: Wednesday, October 5, 2022

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Only three weeks remain in the 2022 regular season — which means each team has three more opportunities to take the field, add to the win column, and secure enough playoff points for a berth in the postseason.

For the second year in a row, 16 teams will qualify to each of the OHSAA’s 28 regional tournaments, for a total of 448 playoff teams statewide. Teams who finish in the top 8 of their region will play at home in the first round, and teams who finish in the top 4 will receive first and second round home games. Matchups are played at neutral sites beginning with the regional semifinals in Week 13.

Across the nine football conferences covered by Gridiron Glory, approximately 90 teams are still in the running for a Week 11 matchup. These are the scenarios in which each team, sorted by conference, can earn a spot in the 2022 playoffs.

A special thanks to Drew Pasteur for all projections and playoff probabilities, and to Joe Eitel for tracking the unofficial current seeding of each team.

Table of Contents

TVC	Tri-Valley Conference
MVL	Muskingum Valley League
FAC	Frontier Athletic Conference
SVC	Scioto Valley Conference
OVC	Ohio Valley Conference
SOC	Southern Ohio Conference
LCL	Licking County League
MSL	Mid-State League
OVAC	Ohio Valley Athletic Conference

Tri-Valley Conference

Written by Aidan Cagna and Jack O’Neill, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Nelsonville-York Buckeyes (6-1) | Div. VI R23

100% Waterford Wildcats (4-3) | Div. VII R27

100% Eastern Eagles (5-2) | Div. VII R27
*Clinched Round 1 home game 

100% South Gallia Rebels (4-3) | Div. VII R27

— IN THE HUNT —

98% Vinton County Vikings (4-3) | Div. IV R15

The only way the Vikings can officially clinch a spot is by winning out against their final three opponents: River Valley, Nelsonville-York, and Wellston. Otherwise, they’re still likely to grab one of the #14-#16 spots in Region 15. Beating the Buckeyes in Week 9 is a daunting task, especially with the conference title on the line and recent injury to QB Zeke Molihan. A loss to N.Y. won’t affect their playoff chances; however, a loss to River Valley could drop their playoff odds down to 78%.

98% Southern Tornados (3-4) | Div. VII R27

Southern has set themselves up well to make the postseason — all they need to do is find one win in their next three weeks to officially clinch a playoff spot. They round out the season with games against Waterford, South Gallia, and Eastern. If they manage to lose all three, they’ll still have an 86% chance to snag a spot in the #12–#16 range.

50% Alexander Spartans (5-3) | Div. V R1

In order for the Spartans to move on to the playoffs, they will have to win two of their final three games. Alexander goes against Nelsonville-York this week, which could not only decide the Spartans’ fate in the TVC-Ohio title race, but also demand that Alexander wins in weeks 9 and 10 — setting up a play-in game against Meigs in the regular season finale.

48% Meigs Marauders (3-4) | Div. V R19

Meigs has a rough task at hand if they want a chance at making the playoffs — winning the rest of their games. But because the same is likely true for Alexander, their week 10 matchups with the Spartans may be the deciding factor on who advances to the playoffs. If the Marauders squeeze into the tournament, their most likely first round opponent is Harvest Prep, who is currently 7-0.

25% Trimble Tomcats (1-6) | Div. VI R23

This is an unfamiliar spot for Trimble. They’ve made the playoffs in 12 consecutive season and are historically near the top of the TVC-Hocking. It’s been a rebuilding year for the Tomcats, and with such a young team, the season has brought growing pains. If the Tomcats can somehow find a way to win out, they clinch a playoff berth. This Friday they play a winless Belpre team, before games against Waterford and South Gallia in Weeks 9 and 10. The Waterford game is likely the toughest on that schedule, and a loss would drop their playoff hopes significantly to just 7%.

01% River Valley Raiders (2-5) | Div. V R19

It’s a long shot for the Raiders, who currently hold the 20 spot in Region 19. If they can win out, their chances go up to just 33%. Otherwise, River Valley is eliminated with their next loss.

— ELIMINATED —

00% Athens Bulldogs (0-7) | Div. III R11

00% Wellston Golden Rockets (0-7) | Div. V R19

00% Belpre Golden Eagles (0-6) | Div. VI R23

 

Muskingum Valley League

Written by Daniel Barnard, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH — 

100% Sheridan Generals (6-1) | Div. IV R11

100% Tri-Valley Scotties (6-1) | Div. IV R11

100% New Lexington Panthers (6-1) | Div. IV R15

— IN THE HUNT — 

98% West Muskingum Tornadoes (5-2)  | Div. IV R19

The Tornadoes’ hopes of ending their 13-year playoff drought are looking all but certain as they can clinch a postseason berth with a win in Week 8 when they take on Morgan. If they do fall short, the Tornadoes will clinch a berth with their next win. West Muskingum is currently sitting comfortable with the 11 seed if the season ended today; however, they are projected to finish #12.

98% Morgan Raiders (4-3) | Div. IV R15

The Raiders playoff hopes are pretty much guaranteed to become a reality. They have a tough matchup with West Muskingum coming up in week 8; however, an easier schedule looms as they will take on Meadowbrook and Crooksville to finish out the season. A loss in week 8 only drops their chances to 95%, as both teams come into this game in a “win and you’re in” situation.

39% Maysville Panthers (4-3) | Div. IV R15

The fate of the Panthers lies in their own hands. They find themselves in a “win and you’re in” situation coming into week 8 when they take on the 6-1 playoff bound Sheridan Generals. They currently hold the #18 seed in Region 15. With a loss against Sheridan in week 8, the Panthers will need to win out in their last two games against River View and Philo to give themselves an 84% chance at clinching a playoff berth.

25% Philo Electrics (3-4) | Div. IV R15

Philo is hanging around in hopes of clinching a playoff spot. After starting the season 1-3, the Electrics are 2-1 since. A conference title is looking rather bleak for the Electrics; however, if they are able to upset Tri-Valley in week 8, they will qualify for the postseason. If they lose, they’ll have a chance to win out against John Glenn and Maysville to give themselves a 79% chance at a postseason berth.

20% Coshocton Redskins (1-6) | Div. IV R17

Coshocton has had a rather disappointing season; however, it’s not over until it’s over. They currently stand with a one-in-five chance of making the postseason. However, in the competitive Region 17, even if Coshocton wins out they would only have a 74% chance of clinching a berth. They have to beat Crooksville, West Muskingum, and River View to make it happen.

10% John Glenn Little Muskies (2-5) | Div. R11

The Little Muskies have had a rather disappointing season after reaching the playoffs last season. They find themselves at 2-5 with just a 10% chance at making it into the postseason. Their fate is in their owns hands, however. If they are able to upset a strong Tri-Valley team and win out, they will find themselves back in the postseason once again.

08% River View Black Bears (3-4) | Div. IV R15

The Black Bears have little hope for the playoffs; their playoff odds only go up to 76% if they win out. With two losses in their final three weeks, they will be eliminated from the postseason all-together. Coming off two blowouts against the top two teams in the conference, River View’s schedule gets a bit easier to finish the year with John Glenn, Maysville, and Coshocton. Their time to make a run is now.

— ELIMINATED — 

00% Meadowbrook Colts (1-6) | Div. IV R15

00% Crooksville Ceramics (0-7) |  Div. IV R23

 

Frontier Athletic Conference

Written by Grant Kiefer, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Chillicothe Cavaliers (6-1) | Div. III R11

100% Washington Court House Blue Lions (6-1) | Div. III R11

100% Jackson Ironmen (5-2) | Div. III R11

— IN THE HUNT —

93% McClain Tigers (4-3) | Div. IV R16

McClain can clinch its spot in the playoffs just by winning one of its final three games, with those being against Jackson, Miami Trace, and Hillsboro. Beating the Jackson Ironmen is a tough task, but the final two games provide a better opportunity to clinch a playoff spot. Even if the Tigers were to lose out, they’d still be sitting at an 81% chance to make the playoffs. McClain is most likely to clinch one of the #10-#12 spots in Region 16.

72% Miami Trace Panthers (2-5) | Div. III R11

Miami Trace should be smooth sailing this week against Hillsboro, as a win would bump its playoff chances up to 76%. Week 9 is when things could really take off, as a win over McClain would boost their chances to  81%. A win the following week against Washington Court House would clinch a playoff spot if the Panthers were to beat McClain; however, if the Panthers lose to McClain and beat Washington, their still sitting in good position with 95% odds.

71% Hillsboro Indians (3-4) | Div. III R12

While Hillsboro can’t officially clinch a playoff spot this week, a win at Miami Trace on Friday would boost the Indians’ playoff chances to 97%. If Hillsboro were to lose that game and their final two games against Chillicothe and McClain, their playoff chances would fall to 54%, and they’d need to keep their eye on the scoreboard for teams above them in the region. The most likely spot for the Indians in Region 12 would be either one of the #15 or #16 spots.

Scioto Valley Conference

Written by Vernon Eguakun, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Zane Trace Pioneers (7-0) | Div. V R20
*Clinched Round 1 home game 

100% Unioto Shermans (6-1) | Div. IV R16

100% Paint Valley Bearcats (5-2) | Div. VI R24

— IN THE HUNT —

99% Huntington Huntsmen (3-4) | Div. VI R24

The Huntsmen can clinch a playoff berth with their next win. This week, they’re the favorites in a road game against Westfall. If they lose to the Mustangs, they will need to win one of their final two games either against Piketon or Adena to avoid being a bubble team on the fringe of a playoff berth. The Huntsmen are looking for their first playoff appearance in school history. They’re projected to grab the #10 spot if they can clinch a playoff berth.

82% Adena Warriors (3-4) | Div. VI R24

The Warriors can guarantee themselves a playoff spot by winning any two of their final three games against Piketon, Huntington, and Zane Trace. Even still, winning just one game will bring their chances up to 99%, at which point they could only lose a spot if a team below them climbs the ranks. The Warriors will likely end up in one of the #10-#13 spots in Region 24 as long as they win at least one more time.

61% Piketon Redstreaks (3-4) | Div. V R19

The Redstreaks can clinch a playoff spot by winning out against their final three opponents: Adena, Westfall, and Huntington. With a win against Adena their chances would increase to 82% but a loss against would decrease their playoff chances to 33% and losing another game would only give them a 3% chance to make the playoffs. The Redstreaks final game against Huntington could be a potential play-in game. Piketon can grab one of the #13-#10 spots in region 19 if they clinch a playoff spot.

02% Westfall Mustangs (2-5) | Div. V R20

The Mustangs will need to win out in their final three games against Huntington, Piketon, and Unioto to increase their playoff chances to 31%. With a loss, Westfall is eliminated from playoff contention.

— ELIMINATED —

00% Southeastern Panthers (1-6) | Div. VI R24

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Written by Dylan Theisen, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Ironton Fighting Tigers (7-0) | Div. V R19
*Clinched Round 1 & 2 home games

100%  Gallia Academy Blue Devils (7-0) | Div. IV R15

100% Coal Grove Hornets (5-2) | Div. VI R23

100% Fairland Dragons (5-2) | Div. V R19

— IN THE HUNT —

99%  Portsmouth Trojans (4-3) | Div. V R19

The Trojans are just one win away from their fifth consecutive playoff appearance. With games against Fairland and Ironton on the horizon, a win is no easy task. The Trojans will likely punch their tickets with a Week 9 win over 2-5 South Point, but a win against either the Dragons or Tigers would push Portsmouth into a top eight seed.

99% Rock Hill Redmen (3-4) | Div. VI R23

Rock Hill is in a similar position to Portsmouth — one win away from the postseason, with two daunting games on the horizon. Though Rock Hill is the underdog against Gallia Academy and Coal Grove, their Week 9 matchup with Chesapeake should give them the boost they need for playoff football. Even if they lose all three games, their odds of getting one of the bottom spots in Region 23 are still at 97%. It’s just a matter of seeding and security otherwise.

22% South Point Pointers (2-5) | Div. V R19

If the Pointers want a shot at the playoffs, they need to either beat both Chesapeake and Portsmouth, or pull off a road upset against Gallia Academy. Neither scenario is favorable for South Point, a team that hasn’t won more than 2 games in a season since 2013.

02% Chesapeake Panthers (2-5) | Div. V R19

The Panthers are yet to win a conference game this season, and have picked up their only wins of the year against Div. VII teams. They need to beat both of their fellow Region 19 opponents — South Point and Fairland — for even just a 59% chance at the playoffs. If they do sneak in, they would likely play #1 Ironton in Week 11, a team that beat them by 62 earlier this year.

 

Southern Ohio Conference

Written by Shane Scalfaro, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Portsmouth West Senators (6-1) | Div. V R19

100% Wheelersburg Pirates (5-2) | Div. V R19

100% Green Bobcats (6-1) | Div. VII R27

100% Notre Dame Titans (3-4) | Div. VII R27

— IN THE HUNT —

99% Northwest Mohawks (5-2) | Div. V R19

Northwest has an open path to the postseason. They clinch if they beat Green this week, or win any two of their next three games. And with Beaver Eastern and Symmes Valley still on the schedule, the Mohawks’ have all but clinched a berth. They’re currently at the #11 spot in Region 19 and are projected to climb up to #9.

91% Minford Falcons (4-3) | Div. V R19

Minford could outright clinch a playoff spot with an upset over Waverly in Week 9. Otherwise, they can climb up to 96% with wins in their other two games against Oak Hill and Valley. Currently projected to be the #13 seed in Region 19, their path to the playoffs is clear, but if they were to lose all three games, their chances to make the postseason would fall to 16%.

86% Valley Indians (3-4) | Div. VI R24

Valley is currently projected to sneak into the Region 24 tournament as the #15 seed. If Valley can beat either Portsmouth West or Minford, they would clinch a playoff berth. The weeks ahead are brutal for Valley, but even if they lose out, they would have an 82% chance to make the playoffs. From there, they can only root for Piketon to win out to knock down other Region 24 teams.

85% Waverly Tigers (3-4) | Div. IV R16

The Tigers can clinch a playoff spot with a big win over their rivals Wheelersburg, and likely move into a top 8 spot by the end of the year. But in the last fifteen seasons, Waverly has beaten the Pirates just once — in an overtime classic in 2020.  Nonetheless, if they are able to beat both Minford and Oak Hill in the final two weeks of the season, their chances would go to 98% and would be projected as the #14 seed. If the Tigers lose to both Wheelersburg and Minford though, their chances drop all the way to 40%.

79% Symmes Valley Vikings (1-5) | Div. VII R27

The Vikings can clinch their playoff berth with just one more win — most likely coming against Sciotoville East this week. If they lose to the Tartans, they’d have to beat either Notre Dame or Northwest, the two favorites in their conference. Lose both of those games, and their chances fall to just 53%.

66% Sciotoville East Tartans (2-5) | Div. VII R27

The Tartans can boost their odds to 98% with a win this week against Symmes Valley. However, if they lose that game, with likely losses to Green and Notre Dame, their odds drop to 18%. It’s make or break this week for Sciotoville East, who could slide into the #15 or #16 spot with a 3-7 finish.

45% Eastern Eagles (2-5) | Div. VI R24

The Eagles can clinch a spot in the postseason with two wins in their next three games. But if they lose out, they’ll be watching the playoffs from home. They’ll have to be on their toes, because they end their season their season with three incredibly tough games against Notre Dame, Northwest, and Green. Winning just one will keep them alive at 62% odds, leaving fate in the hands of other region 24 teams.

01% Oak Hill Oaks (1-6) | Div. VI R23

Oak Hill is eliminated from the playoffs with one more loss. With the last three games of their season being against Minford, Portsmouth West, and Waverly, they have the chance to play spoiler for one team but are unlikely to make the playoffs themselves.

 

Licking County League

Written by Ethan Sargeant, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Newark Catholic Green Wave (4-1) | Div. VII R27

100% Licking Heights Hornets (5-2) | Div. II R7

100% Watkins Memorial Warriors (6-1) | Div. II R7

100% Granville Blue Aces (5-2) | Div. III R11

100% Heath Bulldogs (4-3) | Div. V R19

— IN THE HUNT —

75% Licking Valley Panthers (4-3) | Div. IV R15

The Panthers are in solid shape for a spot in the playoffs, but a lot rides on their matchup this week against Lima Central Catholic. A win would virtually lock Licking Valley into the playoffs, while a loss would drop them to around a 50/50 shot at getting in. With their last 2 games being against two of the premier contenders in the LCL-Buckeye in Licking Heights and Granville, a loss against the Thunderbirds could leave the Panthers’ playoff fate dependent on other teams’ losses.

43% Zanesville Blue Devils (3-4) | Div. III R11

The Blue Devils are currently on the outside looking in for the Division III playoff race. Their next 2 games are against Granville and Watkins, 2 teams that will be pulling out all the stops to win a conference title. It seems likely that before ending their season with an out of conference game against Logan (a game they’re projected to win), they’ll have to throw a wrench in the LCL-Buckeye title race to sneak into the playoffs, where a likely 14-16 seed and a matchup against one of the premier teams in Region 11 may await.

37% Utica Redskins (2-5) | Div. V R19

Utica must win out against Johnstown, Northridge, and Lakewood to even have a chance to sneak into the Division V playoffs. On the bright side, all 3 of those teams have either 1 or 0 wins, so they do have a semblance of a chance to get in. On the other hand, even winning all of those games gives them an 83% chance to get in, where they would likely be the last team in and would more likely than not have to travel down to Ironton to play the Fighting Tigers. Not an ideal first round matchup.

01% Johnstown Johnnies (1-6) | Div. IV R15

The Johnnies fate is all but sealed for the season. Even if they can turn the season around and win out, they’ve only got a 1% chance to crack the top 16 in their region. They’d need a miraculous string of losses to fall in their favor just for the #16 seed.

— ELIMINATED —

00% Northridge Vikings (1-6) | Div. V R19

00% Lakewood Lancers (0-7) | Div. IV R15

 

Mid-State League

Written by Maria Monesi, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Bloom-Carroll Bulldogs (6-1) | Div. III R11

100% Logan Elm Braves (6-1) | Div. IV R15

100% Berne Union Rockets (5-2) | Div. VI R23

— IN THE HUNT —

99% Fairfield Christian Academy Knights (2-5) | Div. VII R27

The Knights can officially clinch a playoff spot if the beat their final two opponents: Miller and Millersport. Fairfield Christian could also make it with a win this week against Bishop Rosecrans. But even with a couple losses, FCA still sits at 95% odds for the postseason.

99% Miller Falcons (2-5) | Div. VII R27

The Falcons earn a playoff berth with a win against any of their next three opponents: Fisher Catholic, Fairfield Christian Academy or Bishop Rosecrans.

62% Teays Valley Vikings (4-3) | Div. II R7

Teays Valley finds themselves needing to beat either Bloom-Carroll or Logan Elm — the two teams occupying the top two spots in the conference. If they don’t beat either of those two teams, they’ll need help from other teams in the region to seal their postseason fate.

33% Bishop Rosecrans Bishops (2-5) | Div. VII R27

Bishop Rosecrans can clinch with any two wins in their final three games, but those would come against either Fairfield Christian Academy, Worthington Christian or Miller. Their best bet is a win against Miller and an upset over Fairfield Christian, but without both of these wins, the Bishops will find themselves out of the picture.

24% Circleville Tigers (4-3) | Div. III R11

The Circleville Tigers must win two out of their last three games to qualify: against Hamilton Township, Fairfield Union and Liberty Union. If the Tigers win this week, they move their chances up to 81%, but a loss brings their chances all the way down to 9%. If that’s the case, even if they win their final two games, they have just a 47% chance of making it.

23% Liberty Union Lions (2-5) | Div. V R19

Liberty Union needs to win out to qualify. That includes a Week 9 road trip to Hamilton Township, in which the Lions are eliminated with a loss. Their best bet to make the playoffs with a 4-6 finish is to lose this week against Fairfield Union, then beat Hamilton Twp. and Circleville in the final weeks.

01% Fairfield Union Falcons (2-5) | Div. IV R15

Fairfield Union is eliminated with their next loss, and they plays at Liberty Union this week. The Falcons have struggled against opponents this season and haven’t been able to find ways to win. Fairfield Union needs a lot to go right in order for a playoff bout, and it starts with winning out against Circleville and Amanda-Clearcreek.

01% Amanda-Clearcreek Aces (0-7) | Div. V R19

Amanda-Clearcreek is eliminated with any loss, and they face off this week against Teays Valley. The Aces’ final two games of the season are against Logan Elm and Fairfield Union, and if they want any chance of making the postseason, they need to turn the season around and win all three games.

01% Fisher Catholic Irish (0-7) | Div. Vll R27

The only way that Fisher Catholic can even be considered for playoffs is if they win this week against Miller. The Irish are eliminated with their next loss loss, but the big concern for Fisher Catholic is that they are still seeking their first win, with three chances left to do so.

 

Ohio Valley Athletic Conference

Written by Sullivan Beach, WOUB

— CLINCHED PLAYOFF BERTH —

100% Fort Frye Cadets (6-1) | Div VI R23
*Clinched Round 1 & 2 home games 

100% Barnesville Shamrocks (7-0) | Div V R19
*Clinched Round 1 home game 

100% Caldwell Redskins (7-10) | Div. VII R27
*Clinched Round 1 home game

100% River Pilots (5-1) | Div. VII R27
*Clinched Round 1 home game

100% St. Clairsville Red Devils (5-2) | Div. IV R15

100% Union Local Jets (5-2) | Div. V R19

100%  Shenandoah Zeps (6-1) | Div. VI R23

100% Bellaire Big Reds (3-4) | Div VI R23

— IN THE HUNT —

98% Cambridge Bobcats (5-2) | Div. IV R15

Cambridge is currently seeded #9 in Region 15 and are projected to finish #10. The Bobcats needs to beat Warren this week to clinch the playoffs, and beating the 2-5 Warriors shouldn’t pose much of a challenge to Cambridge, especially after knocking off Union Local. But if the Bobcats get upset, St. Clairsville is their last obstacle to a guaranteed playoff spot. Lose both games and their chances fall to 94%, and they’ll need help from other teams to squeeze into the bottom of the bracket.

90% Shadyside Tigers (1-6) | Div. VII R27

This has been a rough season for the Tigers. Their 1-6 start pales in comparison to last year’s 11-2 finish, yet the Tigers still have a chance to slide into the wide-open Region 27 tournament. In order for their hopes to come true though, they’ll need a couple of big wins. Wins against both Bridgeport and Monroe Central, who have a combined record of 5-9, will guarantee Shadyside a playoff berth.

57% Warren Warriors (2-5) | Div. IV R15

Warren needs to win the remainder of their games this season. Their tallest task comes this week against Cambridge. Win and their chances are up to 99%, with the momentum they’d need to win their final games against Alexander and Marietta. But with a loss, the Warriors are stuck with 50/50 odds, and counting on other teams in the region to fall down the ranks.

29% Monroe Central Seminoles (1-6) | Div. VII R27

Monroe Central needs to beat both Frontier and Shadyside in weeks 9 and 10 to clinch their playoff spot. With only one of those wins, they’ll be crossing their fingers with a 39% chance of a berth. And if the Seminoles lose out, their fate and season will be sealed.

6% Martins Ferry Purple Riders (3-4) | DIV. VI R23

It’s a long shot for Martins Ferry to get back into the playoff picture; and they need two more wins to make it happen. One will likely come against the struggling Fisher Catholic Irish, but the other win is more challenging. They’ll need to upset either Wheeling Central Catholic in Week 8, or Bellaire in Week 10, to shoot their odds all the way up to 86% odds.

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A special thanks to Drew Pasteur for all projections and playoff probabilities, and to Joe Eitel for tracking the unofficial current seeding of each team.