Sports
Ohio Football Rooting Guide: Who the Bobcats need to win this week
By: Grant Kiefer
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ATHENS, Ohio (WOUB) – Ohio (6-4, 4-2 MAC) needs some help to return to the MAC Championship Game for the third time in four seasons. There are three games this week in the MAC that are crucial for the Bobcats’ MAC Championship hopes–Miami vs. Buffalo, Central Michigan vs. Kent State, and Ball State vs. Toledo. There are eight possible outcomes of these three games, so we’ll break down what needs to happen for the final week of MAC play depending on the outcomes of this week’s games.
For all intents and purposes, we’ll assume Western Michigan, which sits alone at 5-1 in conference, will win out. The Broncos are expected to be heavy favorites in both of their final two games, playing Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois, who are both under .500 in MAC play. We’ll also assume Ohio beats 0-10 UMass for these scenarios as well. Ohio can make the MAC Championship Game if the Bobcats lose to UMass, but it becomes a lot more complicated and a lot more unlikely.
Buffalo, Toledo, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
- NIU wins vs. Kent State
- Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
This is one of the most complicated scenarios of the eight. If Toledo wins out, it’s over for Ohio, no matter what the Bobcats do. Central Michigan winning still wouldn’t be enough for the Bobcats, as they would need some complicated help. With the MAC’s tiebreaker scenarios between two teams, you would have to go down to tiebreaker number four, the combined conference win percentage of conference opponents. Coming into this week, CMU has Ohio beat by a half game. Because Akron and Kent State are on CMU’s schedule and not Ohio’s, it would help the Bobcats if those two teams drop games. Northern Illinois is on Ohio’s schedule and not CMU’s, so a win from them would benefit Ohio.
If this scenario happens, both teams would have a 29-35 combined opponent MAC record. It would then go to tiebreaker number five, the team with the higher ranking on SportSource Analytics’ Team Ranking Score would advance, which is expected to be Ohio.
Miami, Toledo, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
- Ball State wins vs. Miami
- NIU wins vs. Kent State
- Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
Same process as above, only Ball State has to beat Miami in this one. Even though Ohio beat Miami, a three-way tie between either of Central Michigan/Toledo, Miami, and Ohio would not go to the Bobcats. Miami’s win over Western Michigan when the other three teams lost to the Broncos is key. This would force another two-way tie between Ohio and CMU, which we broke down above.
Miami, Toledo, and Kent State all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
Here’s where it gets less complicated. Again, a three-way tie between Toledo, Miami, and Ohio would not go to the Bobcats. Central Michigan would be out of the running with a loss, so a win for the Chippewas would leave just a two-way tie between Miami and Ohio. Due to the head-to-head win from the Bobcats over Miami, that would put them in the MAC Championship Game.
Buffalo, Toledo, and Kent State all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
Same premise as above, only Miami isn’t in the equation. Toledo wins a head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio, assuming the Rockets beat Ball State, which the Bobcats did not. This scenario puts Ohio at 6-2 at solo second place in the MAC, and no tiebreakers to deal with.
Miami, Ball State, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- Toledo wins vs. CMU
OR
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
- NIU wins vs. Kent State
- Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
There are a couple of different avenues here if Toledo loses this week. The easiest thing to do would be to just have Toledo win and leave Ohio at second place alone at 6-2. If Central Michigan wins, the Chips will be 6-2 as well and require the tiebreaker help from the first couple of scenarios.
Buffalo, Ball State, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
- Toledo wins vs. CMU
OR
- CMU wins vs. Toledo
- NIU wins vs. Kent State
- Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
Had Ball State won vs. Eastern Michigan last week, this would’ve been a little more complicated, and Ohio would’ve needed Miami to beat Ball State next week. However, that’s a non-factor here.
Miami, Ball State, and Kent State all win next week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
There originally were no scenarios where Ohio would control its own destiny. Now that Ball State dropped a game, that’s changed a bit. Even if Miami wins out, the RedHawks would be 6-2. As stated previously, Ohio holds the head-to-head win tiebreaker over Miami. This is the first of two scenarios this week that Ohio would have a win and in next week.
Buffalo, Ball State, and Kent State all win next week
Ohio would need…
- Win vs. Buffalo
This would be the other scenario where Ohio has a win and in next week. Buffalo and Ohio would be the only two teams at 5-2 heading into next week, so the winner would get that second and final spot in the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio faces UMass tonight at 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network, while Western Michigan takes on Northern Illinois and Bowling Green hosts Akron, both at 7 p.m. These games will be on ESPN2 and ESPNU, respectively.
Miami will head to Buffalo, and Central Michigan will travel to Kent State, with both games kicking off at 7 p.m. Wednesday, airing on ESPN2 and ESPNU, respectively.
Toledo hosts Ball State at 2 p.m. on Saturday, which will stream on ESPN+.